Build a Warren Buffett portfolio with Stock Screeners
The idea behind the Warren Buffett's Stock Screen is to look for companies with more predictable earnings growth and buy them when they are relatively cheap. Studies (PDF) - and Buffett's track record, have shown that accurately forecasting EPS growth is a major driver of returns with Growth Investing. The other major factor in successful Growth Investing is Value. Although Buffett is traditionally associated with Value Investing, his strategy combines both Growth and Value: Buffett would not buy a company with no growth prospect. It is a GARP (Growth At Reasonable Price) strategy. Investing UniverseIn the book Buffettology, the author (ex Buffett's daughter in law) mentions that Warren Buffett prefers to focus on companies that have shown consistent (stable) historical growth because their future EPS growth would then be easier to forecast: you can just extrapolate past growth.Usually, these companies have a leadership position. Morningstar has a Stock Rating called Economic Moat. Economic Moat seeks companies that have an edge against its competitors and are expected to keep this edge for an extended period. It constitutes an excellent Investing Universe for would be Buffett Investors. Morningstar even uses it in its predefined Warren Buffett screen. If you don't use Morningstar, you can build yourself a series of test to build a Universe of Market Leaders. Why not use James O'Shaughnessy's Market Leaders ? those companies with above average Market Cap, Revenue, Cash Flow and Shares Outstanding. In addition, Buffett does not like "commodity" type of Businesses: businesses with lots of competition and therefore low profit margins. So you may add a screening on Profit margin to your Market Leaders stocks. Alternatively, simply do not use any specific Investing Universe, the primary theme is pretty stringent and few companies will pass a Buffett screen. Primary Theme Go back to TopA Key point in Warren Buffett's strategy is “consistent historical Growth" so the following points should be paid attention to:
Secondary Theme Go back to TopAdding Quality criteria as Secondary theme is important to ensure future Growth has high chance of materializing. Warren Buffet screens for companies with ROE (Return On Equity) >12% as it is difficult for a company to generate genuine high growth without high ROE. Value is a major factor in successful Growth Investing. Buffett wants a margin of safety: if growth does not materialize, then the stock would not be punished as severely as if it were fully priced for Growth. In Contrarian Investment Strategies: The next generation, David Dreman found that Value stocks do not get punished in case of profit warning. You may use various Value measures, for instance:
Ranking and Holding Period Go back to TopFew companies should pass a Buffett screen, Ranking is not really required and you may buy all companies that pass. If required, then one of the above Value measures can be used.Investing "a la Warren Buffett" is a long term strategy and is therefore adapted to long holding periods (≥ 1 year). The addition of Value in the screen provides the necessary margin of safety that long holding period requires. Sample Warren Buffett Stock Screen Go back to Top
Warren Buffett strategy is probably THE best definition of Long Term Growth Investing. As you can see, it is more complex than simply buying companies with high expected Growth and high Price/Book Value, yet this is the definition of many Growth Indexes ! |
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